An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash

An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash

Author: Mr.Alberto Behar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 9781498351638

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 36

View: 314

In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.

An Analysis of OPEC's Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash

An Analysis of OPEC's Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash

Author: Alberto Behar

Publisher:

ISBN: OCLC:1305850788

Category:

Page: 37

View: 608

In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.

America's Energy Gamble

America's Energy Gamble

Author: Shanti Gamper-Rabindran

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781316510742

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 550

View: 235

Rigorous exploration of the Trump administration's pro-fossil fuel policy and its lasting impact on public health, the economy, and the environment.

Oil and the Western Economic Crisis

Oil and the Western Economic Crisis

Author: Helen Thompson

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9783319525099

Category: Political Science

Page: 118

View: 834

This book explains the place of oil in the economic and political predicaments that now confront the West. Thompson explains the problems that the rising cost of oil posed in the years leading up to the 2008 crash, and the difficulties that a volatile oil market now poses to economic recovery under the conditions of high debt, low growth and quantitative easing. The author argues that the 'Gordian knot' created by the economic and political dynamics of supply and demand oil in the present international economy poses a fundamental challenge to the assumption of economic progress embedded in Western democratic expectations.

Global Economic Prospects, January 2018

Global Economic Prospects, January 2018

Author: World Bank Group

Publisher: World Bank Publications

ISBN: 9781464812453

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 240

View: 192

The global economy is in a broad-based cyclical recovery. Investment, manufacturing and trade are on the rebound. Financing conditions are benign, monetary policies are generally accommodative, and the worst impacts of the recent commodity price collapse have begun to dissipate. However, the global economic outlook remains clouded by a number of risks. These include the possibility of financial market disruptions, rising protectionist sentiment, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Of particular concern is evidence of subdued productivity and slowing potential growth. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the causes of the broad-based slowing of potential growth and suggests remedies. The report also contains Special Focus sections on the impact of the 2014-2016 oil price collapse and the relationship between education demographics and global inequality. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 9781475544169

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 20

View: 658

The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: “A New Look at Bank Capital” (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and “Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses “Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.

Organizational Psychology of Mergers and Acquisitions

Organizational Psychology of Mergers and Acquisitions

Author: Camelia Oancea

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781317600473

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 214

View: 147

Organizational Psychology of Mergers and Acquisitions provides a comprehensive perspective that helps you understand, empathise and protect the wellbeing of employees who experience mergers and acquisitions. This book gives a state-of-the-art review that crosses different subjects within psychology including psychobiology, neuroscience, social psychology, interpersonal relationships, and organizational psychology. This book discusses why many employees think of mergers or acquisitions as scary or threatening events, why negative emotions are prevalent, their psychobiological impact and how to assess employees’ emotional responses using a new toolkit. It helps readers learn what counts as good leadership, considering the role of charisma, personality, context and information processing abilities. This book includes the issue of organizational learning, and the relevance of occupational health and safety to due diligence about mergers and acquisitions through case studies about organizations sued for cancer or cancer-related mortality after a merger or acquisition. This book is mandatory reading for students, academics, and practitioners working with organizations experiencing a merger or an acquisition such as consultants, human resource professionals, psychologists, occupational health professionals, and employees involved in strategy, management, or people development.

World Economic Outlook, April 2017

World Economic Outlook, April 2017

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 9781475564655

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 258

View: 465

Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges. Chapter 2 examines how changes in external conditions may affect the pace of income convergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Chapter 3 looks at the declining share of income that goes to labor, including the root causes and how the trend affects inequality. Overall, this report stresses the need for credible strategies in advanced economies and in those whose markets are emerging and developing to tackle a number of common challenges in an integrated global economy.

Strategies for Managing Uncertainty

Strategies for Managing Uncertainty

Author: Alfred A. Marcus

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781107191150

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 564

View: 472

All organizations must cope with future uncertainties. These uncertainties affect the strategic choices they make. They must commit scarce organizational resources to future outcomes which they have little assurance will come into being. Marcus explores how decision makers in the energy industry made choices in the face of such uncertainties, specifically examining two major uncertainties they confronted in the 2012-2018 period - price volatility and climate change. Marcus tells the story of how different companies in the integrated oil and natural gas sector and in the motor vehicle sector responded to these uncertainties. In the face of these challenges, companies in the energy industry hedged their bets by staking out paradoxical or contrasting positions. On the one hand, they focused on capturing as much gain as they could from the world's current dependence on fossil fuels and on the other hand they made preparations for a future in which fossil fuels might not be the world's dominant energy source.

War by Other Means

War by Other Means

Author: Robert D. Blackwill

Publisher: Harvard University Press

ISBN: 9780674737211

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 366

View: 490

Nations carry out geopolitical combat through economic means. Yet America often reaches for the gun over the purse to advance its interests abroad. Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris show that if U.S. policies are left uncorrected, the price in blood and treasure will only grow. Geoeconomic warfare requires a new vision of U.S. statecraft.

Oil Economics

Oil Economics

Author: M. Anandan, S. Ramaswamy

Publisher: MJP Publisher

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 369

View: 825

1. Global Oil Production, Consumption and Price fluctuations, 2. Global Energy scenario – Resources and Reserves, 3. Concepts and Theories, 4. Global oil Industry and Energy Economics, 5. Oil Production, Consumption and Price Behaviour, 6. Findings and Conclusion, 7. References.