Provides an accessible foundation to Bayesian analysis usingreal world models This book aims to present an introduction to Bayesian modellingand computation, by considering real case studies drawn fromdiverse fields spanning ecology, health, genetics and finance. Eachchapter comprises a description of the problem, the correspondingmodel, the computational method, results and inferences as well asthe issues that arise in the implementation of theseapproaches. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling andAnalysis: Illustrates how to do Bayesian analysis in a clear and concisemanner using real-world problems. Each chapter focuses on a real-world problem and describes theway in which the problem may be analysed using Bayesianmethods. Features approaches that can be used in a wide area ofapplication, such as, health, the environment, genetics,information science, medicine, biology, industry and remotesensing. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling andAnalysis is aimed at statisticians, researchers andpractitioners who have some expertise in statistical modelling andanalysis, and some understanding of the basics of Bayesianstatistics, but little experience in its application. Graduatestudents of statistics and biostatistics will also find this bookbeneficial.

Bayesian methods combine the evidence from the data at hand with previous quantitative knowledge to analyse practical problems in a wide range of areas. The calculations were previously complex, but it is now possible to routinely apply Bayesian methods due to advances in computing technology and the use of new sampling methods for estimating parameters. Such developments together with the availability of freeware such as WINBUGS and R have facilitated a rapid growth in the use of Bayesian methods, allowing their application in many scientific disciplines, including applied statistics, public health research, medical science, the social sciences and economics. Following the success of the first edition, this reworked and updated book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and analysis, with an emphasis on the principles of prior selection, identification and the interpretation of real data sets. The second edition: Provides an integrated presentation of theory, examples, applications and computer algorithms. Discusses the role of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in computing and estimation. Includes a wide range of interdisciplinary applications, and a large selection of worked examples from the health and social sciences. Features a comprehensive range of methodologies and modelling techniques, and examines model fitting in practice using Bayesian principles. Provides exercises designed to help reinforce the reader’s knowledge and a supplementary website containing data sets and relevant programs. Bayesian Statistical Modelling is ideal for researchers in applied statistics, medical science, public health and the social sciences, who will benefit greatly from the examples and applications featured. The book will also appeal to graduate students of applied statistics, data analysis and Bayesian methods, and will provide a great source of reference for both researchers and students. Praise for the First Edition: “It is a remarkable achievement to have carried out such a range of analysis on such a range of data sets. I found this book comprehensive and stimulating, and was thoroughly impressed with both the depth and the range of the discussions it contains.” – ISI - Short Book Reviews “This is an excellent introductory book on Bayesian modelling techniques and data analysis” – Biometrics “The book fills an important niche in the statistical literature and should be a very valuable resource for students and professionals who are utilizing Bayesian methods.” – Journal of Mathematical Psychology

Statistics in Practice A new series of practical books outlining the use of statistical techniques in a wide range of application areas: * Human and Biological Sciences * Earth and Environmental Sciences * Industry, Commerce and Finance The authors of this important text explore the processes through which archaeologists analyse their data and how these can be made more rigorous and effective by sound statistical modelling. They assume relatively little previous statistical or mathematical knowledge. Introducing the idea underlying the Bayesian approach to the statistical analysis of data and their subsequent interpretation, the authors demonstrate the major advantage of this approach, i.e. that it allows the incorporation of relevant prior knowledge or beliefs into the analysis. By doing so it provides a logical and coherent way of updating beliefs from those held before observing the data to those held after taking the data into account. To illustrate the power and effectiveness of mathematical and statistical modelling within the Bayesian framework, a variety of real case studies are presented covering areas of common interest to archaeologists. These case studies cover applications in areas such as radiocarbon dating, spatial analysis, provenance studies and other dating methods. Background to these case studies is provided for those readers not so familiar with the subject. Thus, the book provides an examination of the theoretical and practical consequences of Bayesian analysis for examining problems in archaeology. Students of archaeology and related disciplines and professional archaeologists will find the book an informative and practical introduction to the subject.

The 4th Workshop on Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics was held at the Car negie Mellon University campus on September 27-28, 1997. As in the past, the workshop featured both invited and contributed case studies. The former were presented and discussed in detail while the latter were presented in poster format. This volume contains the four invited case studies with the accompanying discus sion as well as nine contributed papers selected by a refereeing process. While most of the case studies in the volume come from biomedical research the reader will also find studies in environmental science and marketing research. INVITED PAPERS In Modeling Customer Survey Data, Linda A. Clark, William S. Cleveland, Lorraine Denby, and Chuanhai LiD use hierarchical modeling with time series components in for customer value analysis (CVA) data from Lucent Technologies. The data were derived from surveys of customers of the company and its competi tors, designed to assess relative performance on a spectrum of issues including product and service quality and pricing. The model provides a full description of the CVA data, with random location and scale effects for survey respondents and longitudinal company effects for each attribute. In addition to assessing the performance of specific companies, the model allows the empirical exploration of the conceptual basis of consumer value analysis. The authors place special em phasis on graphical displays for this complex, multivariate set of data and include a wealth of such plots in the paper.

An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, this book demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach to data sets involving inferences for collections of related units or variables, and in methods where parameters can be treated as random collections. Through illustrative data analysis and attention to statistical computing, this book facilitates practical implementation of Bayesian hierarchical methods. The new edition is a revision of the book Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods. It maintains a focus on applied modelling and data analysis, but now using entirely R-based Bayesian computing options. It has been updated with a new chapter on regression for causal effects, and one on computing options and strategies. This latter chapter is particularly important, due to recent advances in Bayesian computing and estimation, including the development of rjags and rstan. It also features updates throughout with new examples. The examples exploit and illustrate the broader advantages of the R computing environment, while allowing readers to explore alternative likelihood assumptions, regression structures, and assumptions on prior densities. Features: Provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of applied Bayesian hierarchical modelling Includes many real data examples to illustrate different modelling topics R code (based on rjags, jagsUI, R2OpenBUGS, and rstan) is integrated into the book, emphasizing implementation Software options and coding principles are introduced in new chapter on computing Programs and data sets available on the book’s website

The first all-inclusive introduction to modern statistical research methods in the natural resource sciences The use of Bayesian statistical analysis has become increasingly important to natural resource scientists as a practical tool for solving various research problems. However, many important contemporary methods of applied statistics, such as generalized linear modeling, mixed-effects modeling, and Bayesian statistical analysis and inference, remain relatively unknown among researchers and practitioners in this field. Through its inclusive, hands-on treatment of real-world examples, Contemporary Bayesian and Frequentist Statistical Research Methods for Natural Resource Scientists successfully introduces the key concepts of statistical analysis and inference with an accessible, easy-to-follow approach. The book provides case studies illustrating common problems that exist in the natural resource sciences and presents the statistical knowledge and tools needed for a modern treatment of these issues. Subsequent chapter coverage features: An introduction to the fundamental concepts of Bayesian statistical analysis, including its historical background, conjugate solutions, Bayesian hypothesis testing and decision-making, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo solutions The relevant advantages of using Bayesian statistical analysis, rather than the traditional frequentist approach, to address research problems Two alternative strategies—the a posteriori model selection strategy and the a priori parsimonious model selection strategy using AIC and DIC—to model selection and inference The ideas of generalized linear modeling (GLM), focusing on the most popular GLM of logistic regression An introduction to mixed-effects modeling in S-Plus® and R for analyzing natural resource data sets with varying error structures and dependencies Each statistical concept is accompanied by an illustration of its frequentist application in S-Plus® or R as well as its Bayesian application in WinBUGS. Brief introductions to these software packages are also provided to help the reader fully understand the concepts of the statistical methods that are presented throughout the book. Assuming only a minimal background in introductory statistics, Contemporary Bayesian and Frequentist Statistical Research Methods for Natural Resource Scientists is an ideal text for natural resource students studying statistical research methods at the upper-undergraduate or graduate level and also serves as a valuable problem-solving guide for natural resource scientists across a broad range of disciplines, including biology, wildlife management, forestry management, fisheries management, and the environmental sciences.

Data mining can be defined as the process of selection, explorationand modelling of large databases, in order to discover models andpatterns. The increasing availability of data in the currentinformation society has led to the need for valid tools for itsmodelling and analysis. Data mining and applied statistical methodsare the appropriate tools to extract such knowledge from data.Applications occur in many different fields, including statistics,computer science, machine learning, economics, marketing andfinance. This book is the first to describe applied data mining methodsin a consistent statistical framework, and then show how they canbe applied in practice. All the methods described are eithercomputational, or of a statistical modelling nature. Complexprobabilistic models and mathematical tools are not used, so thebook is accessible to a wide audience of students and industryprofessionals. The second half of the book consists of nine casestudies, taken from the author's own work in industry, thatdemonstrate how the methods described can be applied to realproblems. Provides a solid introduction to applied data mining methods ina consistent statistical framework Includes coverage of classical, multivariate and Bayesianstatistical methodology Includes many recent developments such as web mining,sequential Bayesian analysis and memory based reasoning Each statistical method described is illustrated with real lifeapplications Features a number of detailed case studies based on appliedprojects within industry Incorporates discussion on software used in data mining, withparticular emphasis on SAS Supported by a website featuring data sets, software andadditional material Includes an extensive bibliography and pointers to furtherreading within the text Author has many years experience teaching introductory andmultivariate statistics and data mining, and working on appliedprojects within industry A valuable resource for advanced undergraduate and graduatestudents of applied statistics, data mining, computer science andeconomics, as well as for professionals working in industry onprojects involving large volumes of data - such as in marketing orfinancial risk management.

This book offers a set of case studies exemplifying the broad range of statis tical science used in environmental studies and application. The case studies can be used for graduate courses in environmental statistics, as a resource for courses in statistics using genuine examples to illustrate statistical methodol ogy and theory, and for courses in environmental science. Not only are these studies valuable for teaching about an essential cross-disciplinary activity but they can also be used to spur new research along directions exposed in these examples. The studies reported here resulted from a program of research carried on by the National Institute of Statistical Sciences (NISS) during the years 1992- 1996. NISS was created in 1991 as an initiative of the national statistics or ganizations, with the mission to renew and focus efforts of statistical science on important cross-disciplinary problems. One of NISS' first projects was a cooperative research effort with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on problems of great interest to environmental science and regulation, surely one of today's most important cross-disciplinary activities. With the support and encouragement of Gary Foley, Director of the (then) U.S. EPA Atmospheric Research and Exposure Assessment Laboratory, a project and a research team were assembled by NISS that pursued a program which produced a set of results and products from which this book was drawn.

This volume presents the published proceedings of the lOth International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, to be held in Innsbruck, Austria from 10 to 14 July, 1995. This workshop marks an important anniversary. The inaugural workshop in this series also took place in Innsbruck in 1986, and brought together a small but enthusiastic group of thirty European statisticians interested in statistical modelling. The workshop arose out of two G LIM conferences in the U. K. in London (1982) and Lancaster (1985), and from a num ber of short courses organised by Murray Aitkin and held at Lancaster in the early 1980s, which attracted many European statisticians interested in Generalised Linear Modelling. The inaugural workshop in Innsbruck con centrated on GLMs and was characterised by a number of features - a friendly and supportive academic atmosphere, tutorial sessions and invited speakers presenting new developments in statistical modelling, and a very well organised social programme. The academic programme allowed plenty of time for presentation and for discussion, and made available copies of all papers beforehand. Over the intervening years, the workshop has grown substantially, and now regularly attracts over 150 participants. The scope of the workshop is now much broader, reflecting the growth in the subject of statistical modelling over ten years. The elements ofthe first workshop, however, are still present, and participants always find the meetings relevant and stimulating.

A compilation of original articles by Bayesian experts, this volume presents perspectives on recent developments on nonparametric and semiparametric methods in Bayesian statistics. The articles discuss how to conceptualize and develop Bayesian models using rich classes of nonparametric and semiparametric methods, how to use modern computational tools to summarize inferences, and how to apply these methodologies through the analysis of case studies.

This book consists of three parts: Part One is composed of two introductory chapters. The first chapter provides an instrumental varible interpretation of the state space time series algorithm originally proposed by Aoki (1983), and gives an introductory account for incorporating exogenous signals in state space models. The second chapter, by Havenner, gives practical guidance in apply ing this algorithm by one of the most experienced practitioners of the method. Havenner begins by summarizing six reasons state space methods are advanta geous, and then walks the reader through construction and evaluation of a state space model for four monthly macroeconomic series: industrial production in dex, consumer price index, six month commercial paper rate, and money stock (Ml). To single out one of the several important insights in modeling that he shares with the reader, he discusses in Section 2ii the effects of sampling er rors and model misspecification on successful modeling efforts. He argues that model misspecification is an important amplifier of the effects of sampling error that may cause symplectic matrices to have complex unit roots, a theoretical impossibility. Correct model specifications increase efficiency of estimators and often eliminate this finite sample problem. This is an important insight into the positive realness of covariance matrices; positivity has been emphasized by system engineers to the exclusion of other methods of reducing sampling error and alleviating what is simply a finite sample problem. The second and third parts collect papers that describe specific applications.

To celebrate Peter Huber's 60th birthday in 1994, our university had invited for a festive occasion in the afternoon of Thursday, June 9. The invitation to honour this outstanding personality was followed by about fifty colleagues and former students from, mainly, allover the world. Others, who could not attend, sent their congratulations by mail and e-mail (P. Bickel:" ... It's hard to imagine that Peter turned 60 ... "). After a welcome address by Adalbert Kerber (dean), the following lectures were delivered. Volker Strassen (Konstanz): Almost Sure Primes and Cryptography -an Introduction Frank Hampel (Zurich): On the Philosophical Foundations of Statistics 1 Andreas Buja (Murray Hill): Projections and Sections High-Dimensional Graphics for Data Analysis. The distinguished speakers lauded Peter Huber a hard and fair mathematician, a cooperative and stimulating colleague, and an inspiring and helpful teacher. The Festkolloquium was surrounded with a musical program by the Univer 2 sity's Brass Ensemble. The subsequent Workshop "Robust Statistics, Data Analysis and Computer Intensive Methods" in Schloss Thurnau, Friday until Sunday, June 9-12, was organized about the areas in statistics that Peter Huber himself has markedly shaped. In the time since the conference, most of the contributions could be edited for this volume-a late birthday present-that may give a new impetus to further research in these fields.